Archive for the ‘February NPD’ Category

Analyzing the Analyst: Michael Pachter is Wrong

March 15, 2010

On Friday, March 12, 2010, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter made some statements about why he thought the Nintendo Wii’s sales declined during the month of February.
IndustryGamers.com quoted Michael Pachter as saying, “Nintendo’s overall performance was well below our expectations, with software down over 30% and Wii hardware units down almost 50%.  Nintendo had warned us that February would be a difficult month due to supply constraints, but we believe that the problem runs deep than that, as sales of staple titles like Wii Fit with Balance Board and Wii Play were well below historical levels.  Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May (Super Mario Galaxy 2) and its software attach rate continues to decline.

Over the last several years, the Wii benefited from being the cheapest console, but it seems that many of its new purchasers are more discriminating about software purchases than in the past, with a consistently declining tie ratio.  This is exemplified by Wii Play, which sold barely 50,000 units in February, and Wii Fit, which also came in well below what we had expected.  Titles such as these are finally starting to fade, suggesting that the new Wii purchaser is more casual than ever.  Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst.”

I believe Michael Pachter’s statement is wrong on numerous points.  Read my thoughts and see if you agree, HERE!


First Point He Is Wrong On:
When Mr. Pachter said, “…sales of staple titles like Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board…were well below historical levels.”, he was right about Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board sales being below historical levels, but what he doesn’t/didn’t state is probably the main reason Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board had sales below historical levels.
Amazon.com has been out-of-stock of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board for the last 9 weeks and counting.
It’s not just Amazon.com though, sites like WalMart.com, ToysRUs.com, Target.com, and BestBuy.com, are out-of-stock of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board as well, as of Saturday and yesterday(Sunday, March 14, 2010).

Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board

He said the same about Wii Play’s sales, saying they, “…were well below historical levels.”
Well, Amazon.com, Target.com, WalMart.com, and BestBuy.com are out of stock of Wii Play.  ToysRUs.com has a Wii Play bundle in-stock, but the price on the Wii Play Game Pack is $81.97.

Wii Play with Wii Remote

When Michael Pachter said, “Titles such as these(Wii Fit Plus and Wii Play) are starting to fade…”, I believe it shows Michael Pachter’s lack of knowledge of the Wii game market, especially considering he didn’t even mention that these games were/are having trouble staying in-stock, just like the Wii system was.

If Michael Pachter is a true analyst, I would think he, or his team, would follow these type of things, but maybe they’re too busy drinking coffee?  Can I really blame them?
Yes.  As much as I love coffee(if that were his excuse), Michael Pachter is a paid analyst and with statements like these from him, I think they show either ignorance or laziness on his part, maybe both.

People can’t buy the games, if they can’t find the games to buy.

Second Point He Is Wrong On:
When Mr. Pachter said, “Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May…”, I think he was wrong.
Next week, on March 23, 2010, Red Steel 2 will be released for the Wii.
Then, on April 20, 2010, Monster Hunter 3 is being released on the Wii.

Red Steel 2 w/ MotionPlus Monster Hunter Tri Classic Controller Bundle

Today, Monday, March 15, 2010, Rage of the Gladiator will be released on Nintendo’s WiiWare release.

I’m excited about all these games.
Red Steel 2 will be the first Wii FPS game that requires the WM+ accessory to play the game.
Monster Hunter 3 will feature online play, with Wii Speak support, and the demo for Monster Hunter 3 really surprised me.
Rage of the Gladiator looks like a great alternative/addition to Punch-Out!! on the Wii, with a ton of content and replay value, at only a fraction of the cost of Punch-Out!!.

I already have 1000 Wii Points waiting to download Rage of the Gladiator, I already reserved Red Steel 2, and I’m still playing through some of the Monster Hunter 3 demo having a lot of fun with it.

These are just three exclusive Wii games that I’m excited for, that will be released before May.
Again, the only way I think Mr. Pachter could say, “Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May…”, is if he only thinks Nintendo first-party games are exciting, and exclusive Wii games like Red Steel 2, Monster Hunter 3, and Rage of the Gladiator aren’t exciting to him.
Again, being that he’s an analyst, I think he should look more at the Wii’s game market other than first-party games, before making statements like this.

Last Point He Is Wrong On:
Last, but not least, Mr. Pachter said, “Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst.”

We don’t know if Nintendo will show anything new this year at E3, but we do know they’ll be showing the Wii Vitality Sensor, which was first shown at last year’s E3.
I think Mr. Pachter again is dismissing or ignoring something coming to the Wii, that may very well be “…an important catalyst…” for the system.

Wii Vitality Sensor

I know Michael Pachter is an “analyst”, but I don’t believe he analyzed much at all before he made the statement at the top.
I think that Michael Pachter should issue a true analysis of the NPD numbers, and stop being a seemingly lazy or ignorant analyst that just made a statement to make one, with little or no facts to back it up.
Mr. Pachter, if you read this, I know you’ve said you have a great team that you work with at Wedbush Morgan, but I would seriously check to see why the team can’t provide you with simple information before you make a statement.
If you would like to issue a reply to me directly, my email is CoffeewithGames@gmail.com.

Questions:
1) Do you think Michael Pachter was right in his statement, or do you think he ignored/didn’t know that the games he specifically mentioned, Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board and Wii Play, were having trouble staying in-stock at stores during the month of February(even into March now)?


2) Do you agree with Mr. Pachter that the Wii won’t have any “exciting exclusives until at least May”, or are you excited about any Wii game coming out before May?


3) If you were an investor, would you trust Michael Pachter’s advice, now knowing he seemingly made an “analysis” that was either outright ignorant or lazy?

You can read more about Rage of the Gladiator by either clicking on its name in the article, or by visiting GhostfireGames.com.
You can see some of the others listed on Amazon.com right here:
   

The picture used in the image at the top was from a “google” search and then looking through the images tab. The website it came from was, http://otrapartida.com/el-vidente-pachter-vuelve-a-la-carga/7789/.

Analyzing the Analyst: Michael Pachter is Wrong

March 15, 2010

On Friday, March 12, 2010, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter made some statements about why he thought the Nintendo Wii’s sales declined during the month of February.
IndustryGamers.com quoted Michael Pachter as saying, “Nintendo’s overall performance was well below our expectations, with software down over 30% and Wii hardware units down almost 50%.  Nintendo had warned us that February would be a difficult month due to supply constraints, but we believe that the problem runs deep than that, as sales of staple titles like Wii Fit with Balance Board and Wii Play were well below historical levels.  Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May (Super Mario Galaxy 2) and its software attach rate continues to decline.

Over the last several years, the Wii benefited from being the cheapest console, but it seems that many of its new purchasers are more discriminating about software purchases than in the past, with a consistently declining tie ratio.  This is exemplified by Wii Play, which sold barely 50,000 units in February, and Wii Fit, which also came in well below what we had expected.  Titles such as these are finally starting to fade, suggesting that the new Wii purchaser is more casual than ever.  Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst.”

I believe Michael Pachter’s statement is wrong on numerous points.  Read my thoughts and see if you agree, HERE!


First Point He Is Wrong On:
When Mr. Pachter said, “…sales of staple titles like Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board…were well below historical levels.”, he was right about Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board sales being below historical levels, but what he doesn’t/didn’t state is probably the main reason Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board had sales below historical levels.
Amazon.com has been out-of-stock of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board for the last 9 weeks and counting.
It’s not just Amazon.com though, sites like WalMart.com, ToysRUs.com, Target.com, and BestBuy.com, are out-of-stock of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board as well, as of Saturday and yesterday(Sunday, March 14, 2010).

Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board

He said the same about Wii Play’s sales, saying they, “…were well below historical levels.”
Well, Amazon.com, Target.com, WalMart.com, and BestBuy.com are out of stock of Wii Play.  ToysRUs.com has a Wii Play bundle in-stock, but the price on the Wii Play Game Pack is $81.97.

Wii Play with Wii Remote

When Michael Pachter said, “Titles such as these(Wii Fit Plus and Wii Play) are starting to fade…”, I believe it shows Michael Pachter’s lack of knowledge of the Wii game market, especially considering he didn’t even mention that these games were/are having trouble staying in-stock, just like the Wii system was.

If Michael Pachter is a true analyst, I would think he, or his team, would follow these type of things, but maybe they’re too busy drinking coffee?  Can I really blame them?
Yes.  As much as I love coffee(if that were his excuse), Michael Pachter is a paid analyst and with statements like these from him, I think they show either ignorance or laziness on his part, maybe both.

People can’t buy the games, if they can’t find the games to buy.

Second Point He Is Wrong On:
When Mr. Pachter said, “Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May…”, I think he was wrong.
Next week, on March 23, 2010, Red Steel 2 will be released for the Wii.
Then, on April 20, 2010, Monster Hunter 3 is being released on the Wii.

Red Steel 2 w/ MotionPlus Monster Hunter Tri Classic Controller Bundle

Today, Monday, March 15, 2010, Rage of the Gladiator will be released on Nintendo’s WiiWare release.

I’m excited about all these games.
Red Steel 2 will be the first Wii FPS game that requires the WM+ accessory to play the game.
Monster Hunter 3 will feature online play, with Wii Speak support, and the demo for Monster Hunter 3 really surprised me.
Rage of the Gladiator looks like a great alternative/addition to Punch-Out!! on the Wii, with a ton of content and replay value, at only a fraction of the cost of Punch-Out!!.

I already have 1000 Wii Points waiting to download Rage of the Gladiator, I already reserved Red Steel 2, and I’m still playing through some of the Monster Hunter 3 demo having a lot of fun with it.

These are just three exclusive Wii games that I’m excited for, that will be released before May.
Again, the only way I think Mr. Pachter could say, “Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May…”, is if he only thinks Nintendo first-party games are exciting, and exclusive Wii games like Red Steel 2, Monster Hunter 3, and Rage of the Gladiator aren’t exciting to him.
Again, being that he’s an analyst, I think he should look more at the Wii’s game market other than first-party games, before making statements like this.

Last Point He Is Wrong On:
Last, but not least, Mr. Pachter said, “Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst.”

We don’t know if Nintendo will show anything new this year at E3, but we do know they’ll be showing the Wii Vitality Sensor, which was first shown at last year’s E3.
I think Mr. Pachter again is dismissing or ignoring something coming to the Wii, that may very well be “…an important catalyst…” for the system.

Wii Vitality Sensor

I know Michael Pachter is an “analyst”, but I don’t believe he analyzed much at all before he made the statement at the top.
I think that Michael Pachter should issue a true analysis of the NPD numbers, and stop being a seemingly lazy or ignorant analyst that just made a statement to make one, with little or no facts to back it up.
Mr. Pachter, if you read this, I know you’ve said you have a great team that you work with at Wedbush Morgan, but I would seriously check to see why the team can’t provide you with simple information before you make a statement.
If you would like to issue a reply to me directly, my email is CoffeewithGames@gmail.com.

Questions:
1) Do you think Michael Pachter was right in his statement, or do you think he ignored/didn’t know that the games he specifically mentioned, Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board and Wii Play, were having trouble staying in-stock at stores during the month of February(even into March now)?


2) Do you agree with Mr. Pachter that the Wii won’t have any “exciting exclusives until at least May”, or are you excited about any Wii game coming out before May?


3) If you were an investor, would you trust Michael Pachter’s advice, now knowing he seemingly made an “analysis” that was either outright ignorant or lazy?

You can read more about Rage of the Gladiator by either clicking on its name in the article, or by visiting GhostfireGames.com.
You can see some of the others listed on Amazon.com right here:
   

The picture used in the image at the top was from a “google” search and then looking through the images tab. The website it came from was, http://otrapartida.com/el-vidente-pachter-vuelve-a-la-carga/7789/.