Archive for the ‘Analyst Michael Pachter’ Category

Michael Pachter: Thoughts on Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter 3

April 9, 2010

A few weeks back, on March 15, 2010, I wrote a post “Analyzing the Analyst:  Michael Pachter is Wrong“.

Last week, I showed Mr. Pachter actually responded to my original post with an email, and I shared his thoughts on the Wii Vitality Sensor.  You can find that post, “Michael Pachter Responds!  Thoughts on the Wii Vitality Sensor“.

This week, I’m sharing Mr. Pachter’s response, to my second point I thought he was wrong about.
Mr. Pachter originally said, “Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May…”.
I said that I thought he was wrong, and I named both Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter 3 as just two Wii retail exclusives releasing before May.

Mr. Pachter responded to my second point saying, “I actually meant first party exclusives, but you’re right that Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter are both exciting, and are both exclusives.  Ubisoft recently said that they were going to de-emphasize the hard-core Wii titles, and I don’t think Red Steel 2 will be a huge seller (probably on par with the first), but Monster Hunter will probably be huge.  I mis-typed and said ‘exclusives’, and will live with my error.”
Mr. Pachter then ended the paragraph by saying, “It’s funny that you blamed it on too much coffee, when in fact, it was attributable to too little coffee.”

Questions:
Do you think Mr. Pachter is correct in thinking Red Steel 2 will be on par with the original Red Steel’s sales numbers?  Do you agree with Mr. Pachter and think that Monster Hunter 3 will sell better than Red Steel 2?

As for my thoughts on it, I think Red Steel 2 will sell less than the original, but I do agree and I think Monster Hunter 3 is going to sell well.

Image courtesy of GameInvestmentConference.com.


If you’re interested in either Red Steel 2 or Monster Hunter 3, you can see the bundles for both games on Amazon.com below:
   

Advertisements

Michael Pachter: Thoughts on Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter 3

April 9, 2010

A few weeks back, on March 15, 2010, I wrote a post “Analyzing the Analyst:  Michael Pachter is Wrong“.

Last week, I showed Mr. Pachter actually responded to my original post with an email, and I shared his thoughts on the Wii Vitality Sensor.  You can find that post, “Michael Pachter Responds!  Thoughts on the Wii Vitality Sensor“.

This week, I’m sharing Mr. Pachter’s response, to my second point I thought he was wrong about.
Mr. Pachter originally said, “Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May…”.
I said that I thought he was wrong, and I named both Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter 3 as just two Wii retail exclusives releasing before May.

Mr. Pachter responded to my second point saying, “I actually meant first party exclusives, but you’re right that Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter are both exciting, and are both exclusives.  Ubisoft recently said that they were going to de-emphasize the hard-core Wii titles, and I don’t think Red Steel 2 will be a huge seller (probably on par with the first), but Monster Hunter will probably be huge.  I mis-typed and said ‘exclusives’, and will live with my error.”
Mr. Pachter then ended the paragraph by saying, “It’s funny that you blamed it on too much coffee, when in fact, it was attributable to too little coffee.”

Questions:
Do you think Mr. Pachter is correct in thinking Red Steel 2 will be on par with the original Red Steel’s sales numbers?  Do you agree with Mr. Pachter and think that Monster Hunter 3 will sell better than Red Steel 2?

As for my thoughts on it, I think Red Steel 2 will sell less than the original, but I do agree and I think Monster Hunter 3 is going to sell well.

Image courtesy of GameInvestmentConference.com.


If you’re interested in either Red Steel 2 or Monster Hunter 3, you can see the bundles for both games on Amazon.com below:
http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=coffeew-20&o=1&p=8&l=bpl&asins=B001TOMR0C&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=coffeew-20&o=1&p=8&l=bpl&asins=B002MBQA18&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=coffeew-20&o=1&p=8&l=bpl&asins=B002BRYXOO&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=coffeew-20&o=1&p=8&l=bpl&asins=B0036KRP3Q&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr

Michael Pachter Responds! Thoughts on the Wii Vitality Sensor

March 31, 2010

Two weeks ago, on Monday, March 15, 2010, I posted up a blog titled, “Analyzing the Analyst: Michael Pachter is Wrong“.

I included in a paragraph, “If you would like to issue a reply to me directly, my email is CoffeewithGames@gmail.com.”

Well, I couldn’t believe my eyes when I opened my email and saw a response from Mr. Pachter himself!

I had shown in my original post, three points I thought Mr. Pachter was incorrect about in one of his statements.
One thing Mr. Pachter had said, I disagreed with was, ‘Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst.”

I said in response to that, “We don’t know if Nintendo will show anything new this year at E3, but we do know they’ll be showing the Wii Vitality Sensor, which was first shown at last year’s E3.
I think Mr. Pachter again is dismissing or ignoring something coming to the Wii, that may very well be ‘…an important catalyst…’ for the system.”

What did Mr. Pachter say in response to that in the email, about the Wii Vitality Sensor being a possible catalyst?

Mr. Pachter said, “We can agree to disagree about the Wii Vitality Sensor.  It looks tremendously stupid to me, but I’m sure I’m not the target market.

I’ll be posting Mr. Pachter’s other responses within the next week*.

Question:
Do you think Mr. Pachter is correct in dismissing the Wii Vitality Sensor, and not seeing it as a possible catalyst for the Wii, compared to Sony’s Move and Microsoft’s Project Natal?




Picture of Mr. Pachter from http://www.gameinvestmentconference.com/speaker_bio.php?ind=1.

PlayStation Move ControllerPlayStation Move Sub-ControllerWii Vitality Sensor

 

>Michael Pachter Responds! Thoughts on the Wii Vitality Sensor

March 31, 2010

>

Two weeks ago, on Monday, March 15, 2010, I posted up a blog titled, “Analyzing the Analyst: Michael Pachter is Wrong“.

I included in a paragraph, “If you would like to issue a reply to me directly, my email is CoffeewithGames@gmail.com.”

Well, I couldn’t believe my eyes when I opened my email and saw a response from Mr. Pachter himself!

I had shown in my original post, three points I thought Mr. Pachter was incorrect about in one of his statements.
One thing Mr. Pachter had said, I disagreed with was, ‘Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst.”

I said in response to that, “We don’t know if Nintendo will show anything new this year at E3, but we do know they’ll be showing the Wii Vitality Sensor, which was first shown at last year’s E3.
I think Mr. Pachter again is dismissing or ignoring something coming to the Wii, that may very well be ‘…an important catalyst…’ for the system.”

What did Mr. Pachter say in response to that in the email, about the Wii Vitality Sensor being a possible catalyst?

Mr. Pachter said, “We can agree to disagree about the Wii Vitality Sensor.  It looks tremendously stupid to me, but I’m sure I’m not the target market.

I’ll be posting Mr. Pachter’s other responses within the next week*.

Question:
Do you think Mr. Pachter is correct in dismissing the Wii Vitality Sensor, and not seeing it as a possible catalyst for the Wii, compared to Sony’s Move and Microsoft’s Project Natal?




Picture of Mr. Pachter from http://www.gameinvestmentconference.com/speaker_bio.php?ind=1.

PlayStation Move ControllerPlayStation Move Sub-ControllerWii Vitality Sensor

 

Analyzing the Analyst: Michael Pachter is Wrong

March 15, 2010

On Friday, March 12, 2010, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter made some statements about why he thought the Nintendo Wii’s sales declined during the month of February.
IndustryGamers.com quoted Michael Pachter as saying, “Nintendo’s overall performance was well below our expectations, with software down over 30% and Wii hardware units down almost 50%.  Nintendo had warned us that February would be a difficult month due to supply constraints, but we believe that the problem runs deep than that, as sales of staple titles like Wii Fit with Balance Board and Wii Play were well below historical levels.  Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May (Super Mario Galaxy 2) and its software attach rate continues to decline.

Over the last several years, the Wii benefited from being the cheapest console, but it seems that many of its new purchasers are more discriminating about software purchases than in the past, with a consistently declining tie ratio.  This is exemplified by Wii Play, which sold barely 50,000 units in February, and Wii Fit, which also came in well below what we had expected.  Titles such as these are finally starting to fade, suggesting that the new Wii purchaser is more casual than ever.  Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst.”

I believe Michael Pachter’s statement is wrong on numerous points.  Read my thoughts and see if you agree, HERE!


First Point He Is Wrong On:
When Mr. Pachter said, “…sales of staple titles like Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board…were well below historical levels.”, he was right about Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board sales being below historical levels, but what he doesn’t/didn’t state is probably the main reason Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board had sales below historical levels.
Amazon.com has been out-of-stock of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board for the last 9 weeks and counting.
It’s not just Amazon.com though, sites like WalMart.com, ToysRUs.com, Target.com, and BestBuy.com, are out-of-stock of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board as well, as of Saturday and yesterday(Sunday, March 14, 2010).

Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board

He said the same about Wii Play’s sales, saying they, “…were well below historical levels.”
Well, Amazon.com, Target.com, WalMart.com, and BestBuy.com are out of stock of Wii Play.  ToysRUs.com has a Wii Play bundle in-stock, but the price on the Wii Play Game Pack is $81.97.

Wii Play with Wii Remote

When Michael Pachter said, “Titles such as these(Wii Fit Plus and Wii Play) are starting to fade…”, I believe it shows Michael Pachter’s lack of knowledge of the Wii game market, especially considering he didn’t even mention that these games were/are having trouble staying in-stock, just like the Wii system was.

If Michael Pachter is a true analyst, I would think he, or his team, would follow these type of things, but maybe they’re too busy drinking coffee?  Can I really blame them?
Yes.  As much as I love coffee(if that were his excuse), Michael Pachter is a paid analyst and with statements like these from him, I think they show either ignorance or laziness on his part, maybe both.

People can’t buy the games, if they can’t find the games to buy.

Second Point He Is Wrong On:
When Mr. Pachter said, “Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May…”, I think he was wrong.
Next week, on March 23, 2010, Red Steel 2 will be released for the Wii.
Then, on April 20, 2010, Monster Hunter 3 is being released on the Wii.

Red Steel 2 w/ MotionPlus Monster Hunter Tri Classic Controller Bundle

Today, Monday, March 15, 2010, Rage of the Gladiator will be released on Nintendo’s WiiWare release.

I’m excited about all these games.
Red Steel 2 will be the first Wii FPS game that requires the WM+ accessory to play the game.
Monster Hunter 3 will feature online play, with Wii Speak support, and the demo for Monster Hunter 3 really surprised me.
Rage of the Gladiator looks like a great alternative/addition to Punch-Out!! on the Wii, with a ton of content and replay value, at only a fraction of the cost of Punch-Out!!.

I already have 1000 Wii Points waiting to download Rage of the Gladiator, I already reserved Red Steel 2, and I’m still playing through some of the Monster Hunter 3 demo having a lot of fun with it.

These are just three exclusive Wii games that I’m excited for, that will be released before May.
Again, the only way I think Mr. Pachter could say, “Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May…”, is if he only thinks Nintendo first-party games are exciting, and exclusive Wii games like Red Steel 2, Monster Hunter 3, and Rage of the Gladiator aren’t exciting to him.
Again, being that he’s an analyst, I think he should look more at the Wii’s game market other than first-party games, before making statements like this.

Last Point He Is Wrong On:
Last, but not least, Mr. Pachter said, “Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst.”

We don’t know if Nintendo will show anything new this year at E3, but we do know they’ll be showing the Wii Vitality Sensor, which was first shown at last year’s E3.
I think Mr. Pachter again is dismissing or ignoring something coming to the Wii, that may very well be “…an important catalyst…” for the system.

Wii Vitality Sensor

I know Michael Pachter is an “analyst”, but I don’t believe he analyzed much at all before he made the statement at the top.
I think that Michael Pachter should issue a true analysis of the NPD numbers, and stop being a seemingly lazy or ignorant analyst that just made a statement to make one, with little or no facts to back it up.
Mr. Pachter, if you read this, I know you’ve said you have a great team that you work with at Wedbush Morgan, but I would seriously check to see why the team can’t provide you with simple information before you make a statement.
If you would like to issue a reply to me directly, my email is CoffeewithGames@gmail.com.

Questions:
1) Do you think Michael Pachter was right in his statement, or do you think he ignored/didn’t know that the games he specifically mentioned, Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board and Wii Play, were having trouble staying in-stock at stores during the month of February(even into March now)?


2) Do you agree with Mr. Pachter that the Wii won’t have any “exciting exclusives until at least May”, or are you excited about any Wii game coming out before May?


3) If you were an investor, would you trust Michael Pachter’s advice, now knowing he seemingly made an “analysis” that was either outright ignorant or lazy?

You can read more about Rage of the Gladiator by either clicking on its name in the article, or by visiting GhostfireGames.com.
You can see some of the others listed on Amazon.com right here:
   

The picture used in the image at the top was from a “google” search and then looking through the images tab. The website it came from was, http://otrapartida.com/el-vidente-pachter-vuelve-a-la-carga/7789/.

Analyzing the Analyst: Michael Pachter is Wrong

March 15, 2010

On Friday, March 12, 2010, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter made some statements about why he thought the Nintendo Wii’s sales declined during the month of February.
IndustryGamers.com quoted Michael Pachter as saying, “Nintendo’s overall performance was well below our expectations, with software down over 30% and Wii hardware units down almost 50%.  Nintendo had warned us that February would be a difficult month due to supply constraints, but we believe that the problem runs deep than that, as sales of staple titles like Wii Fit with Balance Board and Wii Play were well below historical levels.  Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May (Super Mario Galaxy 2) and its software attach rate continues to decline.

Over the last several years, the Wii benefited from being the cheapest console, but it seems that many of its new purchasers are more discriminating about software purchases than in the past, with a consistently declining tie ratio.  This is exemplified by Wii Play, which sold barely 50,000 units in February, and Wii Fit, which also came in well below what we had expected.  Titles such as these are finally starting to fade, suggesting that the new Wii purchaser is more casual than ever.  Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst.”

I believe Michael Pachter’s statement is wrong on numerous points.  Read my thoughts and see if you agree, HERE!


First Point He Is Wrong On:
When Mr. Pachter said, “…sales of staple titles like Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board…were well below historical levels.”, he was right about Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board sales being below historical levels, but what he doesn’t/didn’t state is probably the main reason Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board had sales below historical levels.
Amazon.com has been out-of-stock of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board for the last 9 weeks and counting.
It’s not just Amazon.com though, sites like WalMart.com, ToysRUs.com, Target.com, and BestBuy.com, are out-of-stock of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board as well, as of Saturday and yesterday(Sunday, March 14, 2010).

Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board

He said the same about Wii Play’s sales, saying they, “…were well below historical levels.”
Well, Amazon.com, Target.com, WalMart.com, and BestBuy.com are out of stock of Wii Play.  ToysRUs.com has a Wii Play bundle in-stock, but the price on the Wii Play Game Pack is $81.97.

Wii Play with Wii Remote

When Michael Pachter said, “Titles such as these(Wii Fit Plus and Wii Play) are starting to fade…”, I believe it shows Michael Pachter’s lack of knowledge of the Wii game market, especially considering he didn’t even mention that these games were/are having trouble staying in-stock, just like the Wii system was.

If Michael Pachter is a true analyst, I would think he, or his team, would follow these type of things, but maybe they’re too busy drinking coffee?  Can I really blame them?
Yes.  As much as I love coffee(if that were his excuse), Michael Pachter is a paid analyst and with statements like these from him, I think they show either ignorance or laziness on his part, maybe both.

People can’t buy the games, if they can’t find the games to buy.

Second Point He Is Wrong On:
When Mr. Pachter said, “Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May…”, I think he was wrong.
Next week, on March 23, 2010, Red Steel 2 will be released for the Wii.
Then, on April 20, 2010, Monster Hunter 3 is being released on the Wii.

Red Steel 2 w/ MotionPlus Monster Hunter Tri Classic Controller Bundle

Today, Monday, March 15, 2010, Rage of the Gladiator will be released on Nintendo’s WiiWare release.

I’m excited about all these games.
Red Steel 2 will be the first Wii FPS game that requires the WM+ accessory to play the game.
Monster Hunter 3 will feature online play, with Wii Speak support, and the demo for Monster Hunter 3 really surprised me.
Rage of the Gladiator looks like a great alternative/addition to Punch-Out!! on the Wii, with a ton of content and replay value, at only a fraction of the cost of Punch-Out!!.

I already have 1000 Wii Points waiting to download Rage of the Gladiator, I already reserved Red Steel 2, and I’m still playing through some of the Monster Hunter 3 demo having a lot of fun with it.

These are just three exclusive Wii games that I’m excited for, that will be released before May.
Again, the only way I think Mr. Pachter could say, “Nintendo’s Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May…”, is if he only thinks Nintendo first-party games are exciting, and exclusive Wii games like Red Steel 2, Monster Hunter 3, and Rage of the Gladiator aren’t exciting to him.
Again, being that he’s an analyst, I think he should look more at the Wii’s game market other than first-party games, before making statements like this.

Last Point He Is Wrong On:
Last, but not least, Mr. Pachter said, “Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst.”

We don’t know if Nintendo will show anything new this year at E3, but we do know they’ll be showing the Wii Vitality Sensor, which was first shown at last year’s E3.
I think Mr. Pachter again is dismissing or ignoring something coming to the Wii, that may very well be “…an important catalyst…” for the system.

Wii Vitality Sensor

I know Michael Pachter is an “analyst”, but I don’t believe he analyzed much at all before he made the statement at the top.
I think that Michael Pachter should issue a true analysis of the NPD numbers, and stop being a seemingly lazy or ignorant analyst that just made a statement to make one, with little or no facts to back it up.
Mr. Pachter, if you read this, I know you’ve said you have a great team that you work with at Wedbush Morgan, but I would seriously check to see why the team can’t provide you with simple information before you make a statement.
If you would like to issue a reply to me directly, my email is CoffeewithGames@gmail.com.

Questions:
1) Do you think Michael Pachter was right in his statement, or do you think he ignored/didn’t know that the games he specifically mentioned, Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board and Wii Play, were having trouble staying in-stock at stores during the month of February(even into March now)?


2) Do you agree with Mr. Pachter that the Wii won’t have any “exciting exclusives until at least May”, or are you excited about any Wii game coming out before May?


3) If you were an investor, would you trust Michael Pachter’s advice, now knowing he seemingly made an “analysis” that was either outright ignorant or lazy?

You can read more about Rage of the Gladiator by either clicking on its name in the article, or by visiting GhostfireGames.com.
You can see some of the others listed on Amazon.com right here:
   

The picture used in the image at the top was from a “google” search and then looking through the images tab. The website it came from was, http://otrapartida.com/el-vidente-pachter-vuelve-a-la-carga/7789/.

Nintendo’s profit on the Wii at a $199.99 MSRP.

September 19, 2009
How much will Nintendo make off the Wii at a 
$199.99 MSRP?

Updated from previous article: Friday, September 18, 2009


If the reports and sale ads for the stores*, that are appearing on the internet now, are correct, the Wii will get a price drop to $199.99 on September 27.
If $199.99 is the new MSRP for the Wii, and if it is costing Nintendo $107.79 to manufacture everything included with the console, Nintendo will still be making roughly $80-90 per Wii unit sold at the new $199.99 MSRP.


How much does it cost Nintendo to manufacture the Wii in 2009?
From the original Wii manufacturing cost of $195.99*, to the new estimate in manufacturing costs reduction being 45%*, I would say Nintendo can manufacture and distribute the Wii in 2009, for less than $120. If correct, this would mean a Wii retailing at a MSRP of $149.99 or even $129.99 is possible, but not probable, in the very near future.

$107.79 may seem like a low cost to manufacture the Wii with everything in the box, but we must remember, the Wii is simply two GameCubes duct taped together*…
Do you think Nintendo is dropping the price of the Wii enough at the $199.99 MSRP?  Do you think when looking at numbers like these, that an analyst like Michael Pachter may be right in assuming that Nintendo will announce a Wii Plus HD next year and sell it alongside the current Wii?
If you don’t own a Wii, does the new rumored MSRP of $199.99 make it more likely you’ll buy one now?


Sources for rumored price drop:

Sources for manufacturing costs:

Nintendo’s profit on the Wii at a $199.99 MSRP.

September 19, 2009
How much will Nintendo make off the Wii at a 
$199.99 MSRP?

Updated from previous article: Friday, September 18, 2009


If the reports and sale ads for the stores*, that are appearing on the internet now, are correct, the Wii will get a price drop to $199.99 on September 27.
If $199.99 is the new MSRP for the Wii, and if it is costing Nintendo $107.79 to manufacture everything included with the console, Nintendo will still be making roughly $80-90 per Wii unit sold at the new $199.99 MSRP.

From the original manufacturing price estimate of $195.99*, to the new estimate in manufacturing costs reduction being 45%*, I would say Nintendo can manufacture and distribute the Wii, for less than $120. If correct, this would mean a Wii retailing at a MSRP of $149.99 or even $129.99 is possible, but not probable, in the very near future.

$107.79 may seem like a low cost to manufacture the Wii with everything in the box, but we must remember, the Wii is simply two GameCubes duct taped together*…
Do you think Nintendo is dropping the price of the Wii enough at the $199.99 MSRP?  Do you think when looking at numbers like these, that an analyst like Michael Pachter may be right in assuming that Nintendo will announce a Wii Plus HD next year and sell it alongside the current Wii?
If you don’t own a Wii, does the new rumored MSRP of $199.99 make it more likely you’ll buy one now?


Sources for rumored price drop:

Sources for manufacturing costs: